Projets de recherche
"Wage Dynamics and Peer Referrals", avec Marion Goussé
"The Estimation of Network Formation Games with Positive Spillovers"
Boucher, Vincent (2017) (À paraître), "Selecting Equilibria using Best-Response Dynamics", Economics Bulletin.1
Boucher, Vincent; Mourifié, Ismael (2017) (À paraître), "My Friend Far, Far Away. A Random Field Approach to Exponential Random Graph Models", The Econometrics Journal.2
Matte, Simon; Boucher, Marie-Amélie; Boucher, Vincent ; Fortier Filion, Thomas-Charles (2017) (À paraître), "How risk-averse is the decision-maker? Toward a more complete evaluation of the value of probabilistic flood forecasts", Hydrology and Earth System Sciences.3
Vincent Boucher (2016) (À paraître), "Conformism and Self-Selection in Social Networks", Journal of Public Economics.
Boucher, Vincent.; Fortin, Bernard (À paraître), "Some Recent Developments in the Empirics of the Effects of Networks", The Oxford Handbook on the Economics of Networks, Y. Bramoullé, A. Galeotti, B.W. Rogers, eds.
Boucher, Vincent (2015), "Structural Homophily", International Economic Review, volume 56 numéro 1, 2015, pages 235-264.
Boucher, Vincent, Béland, Louis-Philippe (2015), "Polluting politics", Economics Letters, Volume 137, décembre 2015, pages 176–181.
Boucher, V.; Bramoullé, Y.; Djebbari, H.; Fortin, B. (2014), "Do Peers Affect Student Achievement? Evidence from Canada Using Group Size Variation", Journal of Applied Econometrics, vol. 29 (1), pp. 91-109.
Boucher, Vincent. Bramoullé, Yann (2010) , "Providing global public goods under uncertainty", Journal of Public Economics, Volume 94, Issues 9–10, October 2010, Pages 591–603.
1 I propose a simple simulation procedure for large games with multiple equilibria. The simulation procedure is based on a best-response dynamic. The implied equilibrium selection mechanism is intuitive: more stable equilibria are selected with higher probability.
2 We explore the asymptotic properties of strategic models of network formation in very large populations. Specifically, we focus on (undirected) exponential random graph models (ERGMs). We want to recover a set of parameters from the individuals’ utility functions using the observation of a single, but large, social network. We show that under some conditions, a simple logit-based estimator is coherent, consistent and asymptotically normally distributed under a weak version of homophily. The approach is compelling as the computing time is minimal and the estimator can be easily implemented using pre-programmed estimators available in most statistical packages. We provide an application of our method using the Add Health database.
3 A large effort has been made over the past 10 years to promote the operational use of probabilistic or ensemble streamflow forecasts. Numerous studies have shown that ensemble forecasts are of higher quality than deterministic ones. Many studies also conclude that decisions based on ensemble rather than deterministic forecasts lead to better decisions in the context of flood mitigation. Hence, it is believed that ensemble forecasts possess a greater economic and social value for both decision makers and the general population. However, the vast majority, if not all, of existing hydro-economic studies rely on a cost-loss ratio framework that assumes a risk-neutral decision maker. To overcome this important flaw, this study borrows from economics and evaluates the economic value of early warning flood systems using the well-known CARA utility function, which explicitly accounts for the level of risk aversion of the decision maker. This new framework allows for the full exploitation of the information related to a forecasts' uncertainty, making it especially suited for the economic assessment of ensemble or probabilistic forecasts. Rather than comparing deterministic and ensemble forecasts, this study focuses rather on comparing different types of ensemble forecasts. There are multiple ways of assessing and representing forecast uncertainty. Consequently, there exists many different means of building an ensemble forecasting system for future streamflow. One such possibility is to dress deterministic forecasts using the statistics of past error forecasts. Such dressing methods are popular among operational agencies because of their simplicity and intuitiveness. Another approach is the use of ensemble meteorological forecasts for precipitation and temperature, which are then provided as inputs to one or many hydrological model(s). In this study, three concurrent ensemble streamflow forecasting systems are compared: simple statistically dressed deterministic forecasts, forecasts based on meteorological ensembles and a variant of the latter that also includes an estimation of variable uncertainty. This comparison takes place for the Montmorency River, a small flood-prone watershed in south central Quebec, Canada. The assessment of forecasts is performed for lead times of one to five days, both in terms of forecasts' quality (relative to the corresponding record of observations) and in terms of economic value, using the new proposed framework based on the CARA utility function. It is found that the economic value of a forecast for a risk-averse decision maker is closely linked to the forecast reliability in predicting the upper tail of the streamflow distribution.
Intérêts de recherche
- Économie publique
- Interactions sociales